A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
